Range By Epstein Takeaways
A lot to think about as applied to investors’ work, and how to structure our learning environments. Below are my takeaways.
1: Most learning appears inefficient from the outside. We need to create space in our teams’ work time for inefficient learning. People need time to tinker, read tangential subjects, work on interesting projects whos immediate applicability may not be obvious.
2: on Artificial Intelligence: The more closed and fixed the environment, the better the AI results. In more open ended and adaptive worlds, the more space for human contributions
3: Established teams with structured roles are efficient at managing established operations. But those structures pull you away from innovation. 3a: Mature companies slot people into established specialized roles that are well defined. In these places, innovation is often hindered most.
4: Expert predictions have a dubious track record. Much of the investment world is built on expert specialization. More data leads to more confidence but not more accuracy. Allocators bias towards similar due diligence processes. How valuable is the marginal data point?
5: Science curiosity may be an attribute of paramount importance for members of an investment team. Openness to new disconfirmatory evidence is critical
6: People have an innate tendency to cling to historical habits and tools in moments of stress. Firefighters hesitate to drop their tools when they need to run to escape. Mark Bowden documented how soldiers would expose themselves for the sake of recovering fast ropes rather than abandoning them.
6a: Experienced groups and individuals become rigid under pressure. Are there cases where the world has changed for capital allocators? Where have allocators become rigid and reluctant to drop their figurative tools and run?
6b: Paraphrasing Karl Weick, do we as allocators hold on to legacy concepts, checklists or assumptions that weigh us down? I need to read a lot more of Karl Weick’s stuff.
7: As allocators, do we weaken our capabilities if we organize our teams into specialist silos?